Why up to N5 trillion of Nigerian food spoils yearly, and who would pay to save it
Industry estimates put Nigeria's post-harvest food losses at N3.5 trillion to N5 trillion a year, but the figures swing widely and mostly come from one source. The demand that is actually proven sits in pay-per-crate storage at busy markets.
Nigeria lost between N3.5 trillion and N5 trillion worth of food after harvest in 2025, or 30 million to 40 million tonnes, according to the Organisation for Technology Advancement of Cold Chain in West Africa (OTACCWA). The same body says the country runs fewer than 1,000 refrigerated trucks against at least 25,000 needed, with cold storage capacity at under 4% of what is required.
Those are the numbers every cold chain pitch opens with. The question an investor should ask is simpler: if the losses are that large, who is actually paying to stop them?
How solid are the numbers?
Treat them as a range, not a point. The top of the loss estimate is 43% higher than the bottom (N5 trillion against N3.5 trillion), and the tonnage range spans 33%. The truck figure moves even more. In August 2025 OTACCWA put the need at 25,000; in February 2026 its president put it at 6,000 to 7,000. The higher estimate is about 3.6x the lower one. When a single source's estimates move that much in 6 months, the reliable signal is "very large", not any specific number.
The comparison has also travelled. The US International Trade Administration cited the same 1,000 versus 25,000 trucks in 2022, which suggests an older industry estimate being repeated rather than a fresh count.
Apparent gap versus demonstrated demand
Rotting tomatoes prove an apparent gap. They do not prove a market. Cold storage pays only when the value saved is higher than the fee and someone further down the chain pays for freshness. For low-value produce sold in open markets, that is often not true.
The strongest evidence of real, paying demand is ColdHubs, a Nigerian operator of solar-powered walk-in cold rooms. By 2026 it was running 58 hubs across 28 states, serving more than 11,100 farmers, retailers and wholesalers at about N200 per 20kg crate per day. In 2017 the network had 25 hubs in 3 states, so it has grown about 2.3x while the fee per crate has stayed in the N100 to N200 range. That is the pattern of a service traders keep paying for.
Higher-value chains are the second pocket of demand. Fish, poultry, dairy and medicines carry more value per kilogram, so storage earns its fee faster; the ITA lists seafood, poultry, vaccines and medicine among the products hit hardest by the gap.
A worked example
A rough sketch of the unit economics, using public figures and assumptions labelled as mine:
- A standard ColdHubs-type unit holds about 3 tonnes, or roughly 150 crates of 20kg.
- At about N200 per crate per day, a full unit earns about N30,000 a day.
- Assume 60% average utilisation to allow for seasons (my assumption): about N18,000 a day, or roughly N540,000 a month.
- BusinessDay puts cold room construction at N6 million to N15 million, depending on size and specification.
On those assumptions, gross revenue repays the build cost in about 11 to 28 months, before power, maintenance, staff and site rent. At 30% utilisation the payback stretches to 22 to 56 months. Utilisation, not price, decides whether the business works.
Who would pay, in order of evidence
- Traders and aggregators at high-volume produce markets, who already pay daily fees.
- Fish and poultry sellers, where each spoiled kilogram costs more.
- Supermarkets, quick-service restaurants and processors, who pay for consistent quality but often build or contract their own cold chains.
Individual smallholders come last, not first. They move small volumes and have the least spare cash for a daily fee. The ranking is my judgement from the evidence above, not a survey result.
The risks
- Price: if open-market buyers will not pay more for fresher produce, storage fees eat the trader's margin.
- Energy and FX: cooling equipment is largely imported and its cost moves with the naira.
- Utilisation: a cold room running at 50% capacity loses money, and produce is seasonal.
- Data: there is no public volume data for specific markets, so footfall and tonnage at a target site are the first things to measure.
What would change my mind
- An independent count of refrigerated trucks and cold storage, rather than an industry estimate.
- Pay-per-use operators publishing utilisation above 70% across a full year.
- Formal retailers publicly committing to outsourced cold logistics at scale.
Nigeria's food losses are real and large, but the proven business sits in pay-per-crate storage at busy markets, not in a fleet of 25,000 trucks. I'd put the odds at roughly 70/30 that market-based cold rooms reach commercial scale before refrigerated trucking does.
Sources: NAN via 21st Century Chronicle, OTACCWA 2025 loss estimate · NAN, 25,000 trucks needed (Aug 2025) · NAN, 6,000 to 7,000 trucks needed (Feb 2026) · Brands.ng, ColdHubs network and pricing (Sept 2026) · How We Made It In Africa, ColdHubs units and growth · BusinessDay, cold room costs (Apr 2026) · US ITA, Nigeria cold chain industry (2022)
