Will a 1.55% fall in food prices make this Nigeria's easiest Christmas in years

NBS data show Nigerian food prices fell 1.55% between August and September 2026, after rising 1.02% the month before. Headline inflation eased to 14.63% from 15.39%. With retailers and FMCG brands placing December orders now, it is tempting to read that as the start of an easy Christmas. The numbers say it is more complicated.

The base rate says one falling month is normal

A month of falling food prices is not rare. Last December they fell too, by 0.36% month on month. Dips around harvest and the festive season are part of the normal rhythm, so one negative reading is a weak signal on its own.

The year-on-year picture is the stronger signal, and it points the other way. Food inflation was 10.84% in December 2025. In September 2026 it was 19.59%. Food prices are rising about 1.8x as fast, year on year, as they were last Christmas. For this December to be easier than last on that measure, the annual rate would need to fall by almost 9 points in 3 months.

Further back, 2026 looks better: food inflation was 39.84% in December 2024. The NBS rebased the price index in 2025, so the 2 figures are not strictly like for like, but the direction is clear. "Easier than 2024" is probably true. "Easiest in years" probably is not.

Two festive markets, not one

The national average hides a 41.9-point spread between states. NBS state data put September food inflation at 34.4% in Lagos, 33.8% in Imo and 31.5% in Ondo, against minus 7.5% in Taraba, minus 0.4% in Yobe and 2.2% in Borno. Food in Taraba is cheaper than a year ago. In Lagos it costs about 33% more.

That is the untapped part of this season. The states where festive budgets are stretching furthest are mostly in the north and north-east, markets that Lagos-built national campaigns often treat as secondary. For distributors, the volume upside this December is more likely to come from those states than from the south.

Staples and fuel

Rice, the centre of most festive tables, is easing. A 50kg bag of Nigerian-milled rice averaged N51,571 in September, down from N52,250, a 1.3% fall, and imported long grain fell 3.1% to N54,328. BusinessDay reported that the cost of a Christmas menu fell 18% in 2025 compared with 2024.

Fuel is the swing factor. Lagos depot prices for petrol were N1,344 to N1,350 a litre on 15 October, and the federal government is reported to be negotiating a N1,350 ceiling at depot level. December is the busiest travel month of the year, and any rise lifts both transport fares and the cost of trucking food south.

What FMCG and retail businesses should do

• Price by region. A promotion pitched at Lagos price points will look expensive in Taraba and thin in Lagos.
• Lead with value packs in the south, where food still costs about 33% more than a year ago.
• Weight festive distribution towards the north and north-east, where real food budgets have improved most.
• Wait for October CPI, due in mid-November, and watch weekly depot prices before final stock orders.

What would change my mind

• October food inflation falling below 15% year on year, which would put an easier December within reach.
• Lagos food inflation dropping below 30%.
• Depot petrol prices rising above N1,400 a litre in November, which would make me more pessimistic.

This is unlikely to be Nigeria's easiest Christmas in years. I'd put the odds of December food inflation coming in below last December's 10.84% at about 15%, and the odds of a noticeably easier festive season in the north than in Lagos at about 70%.

Sources: Legit.ng, NBS September 2026 CPI · Legit.ng, NBS state food inflation · NAN, NBS December 2025 CPI · The Guardian Nigeria, December 2025 and 2024 food inflation · Legit.ng, 50kg rice prices · Legit.ng, petrol depot prices (15 Oct 2026) · BusinessDay, Christmas menu cost (Dec 2025)