Why 64% of Nigerians now bank digitally but only 1 in 3 users is financially healthy

In most Nigerian markets today, the POS agent sits a few stalls away from the trader, and a bank transfer is as normal as a cash note. The data now show how far that shift has gone. EFInA's 2026 Access to Financial Services survey, which interviewed 18,679 adults between April and June with design support from the National Bureau of Statistics, finds that 64% of Nigerian adults use digital financial services. That is up from about 47% in 2023 and 34% in 2020, so digital use has grown nearly 2x in 6 years.

Mobile money moved fastest. Use rose from 12% to 38% of adults, more than 3x its 2023 level in 3 years. Formal inclusion reached 73%, about 87.2 million adults, past the national target of 70%.

1 in 3, and why that number misleads

The figure most people will quote is that 33% of digital users are financially healthy, against 9.1% of non-users. On those numbers, a digital user is about 3.6x as likely to be financially healthy.

Reading that as "apps make people healthier" would overreach. The same survey puts exclusion at 53% in the poorest fifth of adults and 1% in the richest. Digital adopters skew richer, more urban and more likely to earn a regular income, so much of that 3.6x gap is income showing up twice. My estimate is that well under 50% of it comes from digital finance itself. The published tables do not let anyone separate the 2 cleanly, and that is the honest limit of the data.

Included, but living close to the edge

The number that should worry banks more is not about access at all. EFInA puts 61% of adults in severe liquidity distress. Among adults hit by a financial shock, 71.6% coped in ways the report classes as fragile or erosive, while 13.8% used protective or adaptive methods. That is roughly 5 fragile responses for every protective one.

The product mix explains a lot of it. Formal savings rose from 38% to 53%, but formal credit sits at about 10%, insurance at about 5% and pensions at about 9%. For every Nigerian adult with formal credit, more than 5 save formally. Nigerians now use finance to pay and to hold money. Very few use it to borrow, insure or plan.

Who is still paid in cash

Exclusion fell from 26% in 2023 to 21% in 2026. The remaining fifth will be harder to reach than the last. About 92% of agricultural workers are still paid in cash, and 51.2% of farmers faced a financial shock during the survey period. Women business owners moved forward, with formal inclusion up to 76.3% from 67.5%, while exclusion among dependent women rose to 52.2%.

What this means for banks, fintechs and brands

For lenders and fintechs, the growth market has shifted from sign-ups to products. With formal savings at 53% and formal credit at 10%, the 43-point gap is the clearest sizing signal in the report: millions of Nigerians already hold money in formal accounts but do not borrow formally. Small, short, cash-flow-based credit and micro-insurance priced for irregular incomes are where the demand evidence points. For consumer brands, a mobile money base of 38% of adults means digital checkout is now a mass-market channel, not an urban extra.

What would change my mind

• EFInA's microdata showing the 3.6x health gap holds after controlling for income and location.
• Formal credit rising above 15% in the next survey round without severe distress rising above 61%.
• Mobile money use stalling below 45% of adults, which would suggest the easy gains have been spent.

Nigeria has largely won the access battle and is now behind on resilience. I'd put the odds at about 65% that the next A2F round shows inclusion rising again while severe liquidity distress stays above 55%.

Sources: Gazette Nigeria, EFInA A2F 2026 survey design and results · NAN, EFInA A2F 2026 inclusion and financial health · Legit.ng, A2F 2026 distress and women's inclusion