Who is really using the average 11.4GB a month in Nigeria's data market

Nigerians used 1.76 million terabytes of mobile data in August 2026, the highest monthly figure since the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) began publishing usage in 2023. Spread across 158.5 million internet subscriptions, that is about 11.41GB each.

It sounds like a nation streaming in high definition. The data say something narrower: a large group of light users, a smaller group of very heavy ones, and an average that describes almost nobody.

A record built by existing users, not new ones

Start with where the growth is coming from. Monthly usage was about 1.5 million terabytes in May; by August it was 1.76 million, a rise of about 17% in 3 months. Over the same period internet subscriptions moved from about 157 million to 158.5 million, a rise of roughly 1%. In August the whole industry added only 82,000 internet subscriptions.

Usage grew about 17x faster than the subscriber base. Almost all of the record, in other words, is people already online using more, not new people coming online. The year-on-year comparison says the same: March 2026 usage of 1.42 million terabytes was about 43% above March 2025.

1 connection in 3 still runs on 2G

The average hides who is able to use data heavily at all. In August, 36.05% of internet connections were on 2G and 4.27% on 3G. Together that is 40.3%, about 4 connections in 10, on networks built for calls, messages and light browsing rather than video. Only 54.77% were on 4G and 4.92% on 5G.

Handsets tell a similar story. A KPMG study of 13,251 respondents put smartphone penetration at 75% in 2025, up from 64% in 2023. That survey covered 12 major cities, so national ownership is very likely lower, and the 2G share of connections suggests the gap outside the big cities is wide.

The heavy-using few

So who is using 11.4GB? A simple back-of-envelope calculation shows how concentrated use must be. Assume, generously, that a 2G or 3G connection uses about 1GB a month (my assumption; the NCC does not publish usage by network type). Those 40.3% of connections would then account for roughly 0.4GB of the 11.41GB average. The remaining 59.7% on 4G and 5G would need to average about 18.4GB a month to make the total add up.

Even if the light-user figure is off by 50% in either direction, the conclusion holds: the typical 4G or 5G user consumes about 1.6x the headline average, and the typical 2G user a small fraction of it. Nigeria's data market is 2 markets sharing 1 statistic.

Many Nigerians also keep more than one SIM, often one just for data, so "per subscription" understates heavy individuals further. We covered that dual-SIM gap in our look at Nigeria's 195 million mobile lines.

Following the money

Spending is following the heavy users. Using an average benchmark of N431 per gigabyte, Nigerians spent an estimated N3.67 trillion on data in the first half of 2026, up 43% on the same period of 2025. At that benchmark, August's 1.76 million terabytes would be worth roughly N759 billion, and the 11.41GB average works out at about N4,900 per subscription a month. Both are estimates built on a single average price, and real bundle prices vary widely by plan and network.

The growth came after the NCC approved tariff increases of up to 50% in January 2025, the first in almost 11 years. Usage kept climbing anyway. For the users who can stream, data now behaves less like a luxury and more like electricity: a bill people cut back on last.

What this means for businesses

• Size the market on 2 segments, not 1 average. Roughly 6 in 10 connections can handle video and app-heavy services; 4 in 10 need light apps, USSD and offline-friendly design.
• Price for the heavy user, design for the light one. The revenue sits with 4G and 5G users, but the next wave of subscribers will arrive on cheaper handsets and slower networks.
• Expect growth from upgrades. With subscriptions almost flat, each connection moved from 2G to 4G adds more data demand than a new 2G line.

What would change my mind

• The NCC publishing usage by network type or a median, showing most users close to the 11.4GB average.
• The 2G share falling below 30% within a year, which would mean the 2-speed market is closing faster than I expect.
• Monthly subscription growth rising above 1% while usage per subscription falls, a sign that new, lighter users are finally arriving in numbers.

Nigeria's record data use is mostly a story of heavy users getting heavier while 4 connections in 10 stay on slow networks. I'd put the odds at about 70% that 2G and 3G still carry more than 25% of connections at the end of 2027.

Sources: Technext, NCC August 2026 data usage and network shares · Nairametrics, NCC May 2026 data usage · Legit.ng, estimated data spending H1 2026 · Techeconomy, KPMG smartphone study · TechCabal, NCC tariff approval (Jan 2025)