How Nigeria's consumer credit market really works, in a 39% fall from N5tn
Nigeria's consumer credit fell 39.4% from a N5tn peak to N3.03tn in February 2026, driven by retail loans, while personal loans held. CBN data to May 2026, lending rates, BNPL closures like Klump, CREDICORP and the odds of N4tn again.
Klump, a Lagos buy now, pay later startup, told customers on Sunday 25 October 2026 that it was closing after 5 years and about $1.2m raised, Techpoint Africa reported. The founders blamed debt they could not raise and bank integrations that took 6 to 18 months each. Their exit lands in a market that has shrunk hard: CBN data reported by Nairametrics put consumer credit at N3.03tn in February 2026, down from a N5tn peak in May 2025.
STATART arithmetic: 3.03 / 5.00 = 0.606, a fall of 39.4% in 9 months. That is the number in the headline, and it is the trough. The story since then is smaller and more interesting.
What the CBN consumer credit numbers measure
Consumer credit in the CBN's monthly Economic Report is the stock of household loans held by banks and other depository corporations, split into 2 lines. Personal loans are cash lent to individuals. Retail loans finance purchases such as vehicles and household goods, the category that BNPL apps and merchant schemes sell into. My reading, not a CBN statement: because it is a deposit taker measure, loans that fintechs fund from their own capital are unlikely to show up in it.
The data are slow. The CBN's May 2026 report came out on 24 September, almost 4 months after the month closed. On 27 October 2026, the latest figure on record is May 2026, 5 months old. I found no published June figure.
Here is the series built only from points I could verify. March 2026 is missing because I found no published figure, and I have not filled it.
Source: CBN via Nairametrics, Tribune, Rio Times. Chart: STATART Insights and Analytics
See the numbers
| Value | |
|---|---|
| May 2025 | N5.00tn |
| Dec 2025 | N3.78tn |
| Jan 2026 | N3.81tn |
| Feb 2026 | N3.03tn |
| Apr 2026 | N3.13tn |
| May 2026 | N3.18tn |
A 2025 that ended with the first fall since 2019
The CBN's 2025 annual report shows consumer credit at N3,783.40bn at end 2025, against N4,722.93bn a year earlier. STATART arithmetic: 3,783.40 / 4,722.93 = 0.801, a drop of 19.89%, the first annual fall since 2019. From the May 2025 peak to December, the slide was 24.4%.
Consumer lending also lost ground inside the banks. Its share of private sector credit went from 7.98% in 2024 to 6.60% in 2025, per the same report, confirmed by Economic Confidential. Banks kept lending, just not to households. A narrower CBN measure, aggregate credit to the economy, stood at N57.88tn in February 2026; consumer credit was 3.03 / 57.88 = 5.2% of it.
Personal loans held, retail loans fell 41.85% in 1 month
The headline reading is that Nigerians stopped borrowing. The split says otherwise. In February 2026, personal loans were 64.58% of the total, about N1.96tn, and fell only 0.40%. Retail loans were 35.42%, about N1.07tn, down 41.85% in a month.
STATART arithmetic: retail in January was 1.07 / (1 minus 0.4185) = N1.84tn, so the retail line lost about N0.77tn. Personal loans lost about N8bn. Of the N780bn total fall from N3.81tn, roughly 99% came from retail.
That retail line had just had a strong year. The annual report shows retail loans up 63.77% in 2025 to N1.94tn, 51.16% of the book. Then it shed 44.8% by February. What the data show: a sharp unwind in purchase finance. What they suggest, with low confidence: short tenor asset loans written in late 2025 running off, possibly with some reclassification. The CBN has not explained it, and I would not build a strategy on any single month of this series.
Personal borrowers, by contrast, kept borrowing. In May 2026 personal loans were about N2.06tn, 64.78% of N3.18tn, and grew 1.98% in the month while retail grew 0.90%.
The cost of credit, 35.17% against 8.12%
Price explains a lot of this. In February 2026 the average maximum lending rate was 35.17% while the weighted savings and term deposit rate was 8.12%. STATART arithmetic: a spread of 27.05 percentage points, or 4.3x. A N1m consumer loan at the maximum rate costs about N351,700 a year in interest; the same N1m on deposit earns about N81,200.
ThisDay, citing CBN money market indicators, shows that rate had jumped from 32.68% in January, held at 35.17% through March and April, then eased to 34.78% in May and 33.16% in June. The Rio Times, citing the same CBN series, puts August at 29.20%. On 22 September the MPC cut the policy rate by 350 basis points to 23%. Cheaper money is on the way, but none of it is in the consumer credit data yet.
July is left out: I found no verified July figure.
Source: CBN money market indicators via ThisDay and Rio Times. Chart: STATART Insights and Analytics
See the numbers
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Jan | 32.68% |
| Feb | 35.17% |
| Mar | 35.17% |
| Apr | 35.17% |
| May | 34.78% |
| Jun | 33.16% |
| Aug | 29.20% |
Klump, BNPL and who else closed in 2026
Klump's failure is a funding story more than a demand story. It ran its own loan book, could not raise debt to grow it, then became a marketplace where banks took the credit risk but set the sectors, sizes and pace. Its Jumia instalment option went live about 3 months before the shutdown.
Some of the other 2026 closures grouped with Klump are not lenders. Glover wound down its gift card, Airtime2Cash and bill payment services at the end of July, after building over 1m users. GoLemon, a Lagos grocery delivery startup, shut on 29 July with 33 staff. They point to a tight funding market, not to a lending crisis. Reading 3 closures as proof that consumer credit is broken is noise.
CREDICORP and the Consumer Credit bill
The state's answer is CREDICORP, which disbursed over N37bn in its first year and had its board inaugurated in February 2026, with a target of credit for 50% of working Nigerians by 2030. In July it signed a risk sharing MoU with the National Credit Guarantee Company for partial guarantees on consumer loans. STATART arithmetic: N37bn is 1.2% of February's N3.03tn stock. The CREDICORP establishment bill, HB.2507, was at first reading on the last record I found; I found no evidence it has passed.
What retailers and lenders should do before the festive season
Retailers: retail credit is the line that swings, down 44.8% between December and February. Plan December instalment sales on the May 2026 base of about N1.12tn, not on 2025's N1.94tn.
Lenders: the personal book, about N2.06tn in May, is the steadier line. With the maximum rate down 5.97 points from February to August, repricing payroll loans before December is the cleanest growth lever.
BNPL operators: Klump's 6 to 18 month bank integrations are the binding constraint. Sign funding before marketing.
What would change my mind
- A June 2026 figure above N3.30tn, which would mean growth of nearly 4% in a month, well above May's 1.60%. That would push my odds of a N4tn month in 2026 to 25%.
- Retail loans back above N1.50tn in any 2026 month, which would show festive purchase finance returning.
- The maximum lending rate staying near 29% into December while the series still shrinks, which would mean the problem is appetite, not price.
STATART puts the odds that CBN data show consumer credit back above N4tn in any month of 2026 at 10%, because May's N3.18tn needs 25.8% more growth, about 3.3% a month for 7 months, against a recent pace of 1.60%. The likelier path is slow repair: 60% that June prints above May's N3.18tn.
Sources: CBN via Nairametrics, February 2026 consumer credit · CBN via Arise, February 2026 split and rates · CBN annual report via Nairametrics, 2025 consumer credit · Economic Confidential, 2025 shares · Tribune, May 2026 consumer credit · Rio Times, May 2026 report timing and August lending rate · ThisDay, maximum lending rates · Arise, MPC cut to 23% · Techpoint Africa, Klump shutdown · BusinessDay, Klump model · Nairametrics, Glover wind down · Nairametrics, GoLemon · Nairametrics, CREDICORP board · Nairametrics, CREDICORP and NCGCL · NALTF, HB.2507
