How big is Nigeria's remittance market after a record $1.57bn quarter
Nigeria's IMTO remittance inflows hit a record $1.57bn in Q2 2026, driven by May and June. STATART sizes the total remittance market at $21bn to $24bn, tests the formal channel shift and gives 55% odds Q3 beats Q2.
Licensed money transfer operators (IMTOs) paid out about $1.57bn into Nigeria in Q2 2026, according to CBN Q2 2026 Statistical Bulletin data reported by Nairametrics on 26 October. That is the largest quarter in a series that runs back to at least 2019, up from about $1.18bn in Q2 2025. June alone brought in $580.16m, against $292.25m in June 2025.
Before anyone prints "diaspora sends record cash", it helps to be clear about what is being counted. The IMTO line covers money that passes through licensed operators such as Western Union, MoneyGram and app-based senders. It is not the whole remittance market. It is the slice that the CBN can see moving through formal pipes, and that slice just got a lot wider.
The monthly IMTO figures behind the record quarter
The quarter was not even. April came in at $513.81m, down from $597.44m a year earlier. May reached $472.13m (from $288.17m) and June $580.16m. STATART arithmetic on those monthly figures puts the quarter at $1,566.10m, up 33.0% year on year and 21.7% above Q1 2026.
Q1 itself was a record when it landed: $1.29bn, up 45% from $888.47m, with January at $506.66m, per the CBN figures for Q1 2026. Adding the 6 monthly figures gives $2.85bn for the first half of 2026 ($2.86bn using rounded quarterly totals).
Source: CBN Statistical Bulletin via Nairametrics. Chart: STATART Insights and Analytics
See the numbers
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Jan | $506.66m |
| Feb | $402.13m |
| Mar | $377.93m |
| Apr | $513.81m |
| May | $472.13m |
| Jun | $580.16m |
The longer view is sharper still. Q2 inflows were $551.86m in 2019, $482.58m in 2020, $638.19m in 2021, $954.61m in 2022 and $1.26bn in 2024, so Q2 2026 is 2.84x the 2019 level. The previous quarterly high was about $1.47bn in Q3 2024.
Source: CBN Statistical Bulletin via Nairametrics. $bn, rounded from CBN monthly figures. Chart: STATART Insights and Analytics
See the numbers
| Value | |
|---|---|
| 2019 | $0.55bn |
| 2020 | $0.48bn |
| 2021 | $0.64bn |
| 2022 | $0.95bn |
| 2023 | $0.81bn |
| 2024 | $1.26bn |
| 2025 | $1.18bn |
| 2026 | $1.57bn |
Did the diaspora send more, or did the money change pipes?
The obvious reading is that Nigerians abroad are sending more money home. The timing points to a second story. The year-on-year gain in Q2 was $388.24m, but May and June together added $471.87m while April fell by $83.63m. So the 2 months after 1 May account for more than 100% of the quarter's growth.
That date matters. A CBN circular dated 24 March 2026, effective 1 May, ordered IMTOs to settle through naira accounts at authorised dealer banks, price off Bloomberg BMATCH rates and route conversions through the official FX market. The CBN's stated reason was that informal channels and opaque pricing had pulled remittances away from that market. Beneficiaries also lost the option of dollar cash or domiciliary credits on these retail transfers.
A wider measure tells the same story. CBN balance of payments data show personal transfers, which include workers' remittances, of $5.30bn in Q1 2026 and $5.82bn in Q2, up 9.8%, per Nairametrics' read of the BoP highlights. IMTO flows grew 21.7% over the same period. STATART arithmetic: the IMTO share of personal transfers rose from 24.3% in Q1 to 26.9% in Q2. When the formal slice grows 2.2x faster than the whole, a shift of channel is the simplest explanation. My judgement: roughly 60% of the May and June jump is channel shift and 40% genuine new sending. That split is an estimate, not a measured figure.
How big is Nigeria's remittance market in total?
There are 3 credible yardsticks, and for 2024 alone they differ by $1.20bn.
- World Bank: personal remittances of $19.55bn in 2023, $22.13bn in 2024 and $22.79bn in 2025, per World Development Indicators (World Bank indicator page, values read from this WDI mirror). The 2025 figure may still be revised.
- World Bank brief: the 2024 Migration and Development Brief put 2023 at $19.5bn, 35% of Sub-Saharan Africa's total, as ThisDay reported.
- CBN: total remittance inflows of $20.93bn in 2024, as cited in a Nairametrics op-ed, against IMTO inflows of $4.76bn that year (CBN data via Nairametrics).
Annualising H1 2026 personal transfers of $11.12bn gives $22.24bn. STATART estimate for 2026: total remittances of $21bn to $24bn, with 70% confidence the CBN's full-year personal transfers land inside that band. The IMTO-recorded slice is smaller: $5.5bn to $6.5bn for 2026, a 65% call, given $2.85bn already in H1. In 2024 IMTOs carried 21.5% of the World Bank total. Using that and Q2 2026's 26.9%, the other 73% to 79% moves through bank wires, informal agents, cash carried home and transfers that are not split out by channel. Corridor splits (UK, US, Canada) and fintech versus bank shares are not in the CBN summary, so I leave them out.
For context, June IMTO inflows covered 7.6% of June's record $7.61bn FX utilisation. Useful supply, but not the thing holding up the naira.
Cost, seasonality and what households buy
Price is no longer the main barrier on big corridors. A World Bank Remittance Prices Worldwide quote for Q3 2025 shows Western Union charging 1.33% in total to send $200 from the US to Nigeria online: a $1.99 fee plus a 0.33% FX margin. That is 1 provider, not an average. The regional average for Sub-Saharan Africa was 7.9% in the 2024 brief, a dated figure.
December reliably beats November. STATART arithmetic on CBN monthly data: December was 7.4% above November in 2023, 25.5% above in 2024 and 27.1% above in 2025 ($511.11m). The festive lift is real but modest; it has not made Q4 the peak quarter.
On spending, the best Nigeria evidence is old. World Bank household surveys from 2009, summarised by PRB, found more than 50% of remittance spending went on homebuilding, land and farm improvements, with education next. Treat that as a 17-year-old base rate.
What this means for fintechs, banks and developers
Fintech IMTOs: a 26.9% formal share means roughly 3 in 4 dollars of personal transfers still sit outside the IMTO line. Winning that share pays more than cutting a 1.33% price further.
Banks: every IMTO naira payout now passes through an authorised dealer bank settlement account. With $580.16m in June, settlement float and payout fees are a growing business line.
Real estate and land: if 2009 spending patterns roughly hold, more than 50% of a $21bn to $24bn market is a property and land budget. Diaspora-facing developers should price in naira and expect the money to arrive through banks.
What would change my mind
- July to September below $1.29bn: that would say May and June were a one-off catch-up as IMTOs switched settlement, not a new floor. I put this at 20%.
- IMTO share of personal transfers falling below 24% in Q3 BoP data: that would undercut the channel-shift reading. I put this at 15%.
- A December 2026 IMTO month above $1bn, the CBN's monthly ambition: I give it 10%, and hitting it would push my 2026 IMTO range up.
The base rate for Q3 beating Q2 is thin: it did in 2024 ($1.47bn against $1.26bn) and did not in 2023 ($750.57m against $810.84m), and I could not confirm Q3 2025. Q3 2026 needs an average of $522.03m a month to beat Q2; May and June averaged $526.15m. My scenarios: above $1.57bn 55%, $1.29bn to $1.57bn 25%, below $1.29bn 20%.
Nigeria's remittance market is about $21bn to $24bn a year, and the record $1.57bn quarter mostly shows more of it moving into the formal channel since 1 May. I put the odds that Q3 2026 IMTO inflows top Q2's $1.57bn at 55% when the CBN publishes the data.
Sources: Nairametrics, CBN Q2 2026 IMTO inflows · Nairametrics, CBN Q1 2026 IMTO inflows · Nairametrics, 2024 IMTO inflows · Nairametrics, H1 2026 personal transfers · Nairametrics, June 2026 FX utilisation · Mondaq, CBN circular to IMTOs · Techeconomy, naira-only payouts · World Bank, personal remittances indicator · Statistics of the World, WDI series for Nigeria · ThisDay, World Bank Migration and Development Brief · Nairametrics, CBN 2024 remittance total · World Bank, Remittance Prices Worldwide US to Nigeria · PRB, remittance spending surveys
