Insights and Analytics

Data reveals what instinct cannot.

Contact us for your recent, accurate, and reliable Nigerian market data & reports
Home/Publications/White Papers
STATART Intelligence Series

One hard question about Nigerian markets, answered in full

Our white papers take a single problem, such as why price stopped predicting purchase or why so much survey data fails, and work it through with evidence, method and a practical answer. They publish quarterly.

  • Quarterly
  • Method shown, sources dated
  • Ends with a decision, not a sales pitch
The Library

Papers in the series

Open any paper to see what it covers and who it is written for. Papers in preparation take your name, and we send them the day they publish.

Available nowEnergy and fuel

The Refinery Paradox: Why does Nigeria still import petrol while Dangote runs above 100%?

Nigeria can now refine almost all the petrol it uses, yet in September 2026 it imported 10.2m litres a day while Dangote exported 15.47m. This paper shows why crude, currency and control keep imports alive, puts odds on 2027 supply, and tells fuel buyers how to plan.

By STATART Team

14 pages · NMDPRA, NBS and company data · supply analysis with scenarios and odds · Published 27 October 2026
Get the paper
What the paper covers
  • Why imports continue with a refinery running above capacity
  • Crude, dollar pricing and the fight over import licences
  • What the paradox costs buyers and the naira
  • Scenarios, odds and fuel decisions for 2027

Written for

Fleet operators, manufacturers, fuel marketers, depot owners, investors and policy teams

Cite this paper

STATART Team, STATART Insights and Analytics (2026). The Refinery Paradox: Why does Nigeria still import petrol while Dangote runs above 100%?. Lagos: STATART.
Available nowRates and credit

The Rate-Cut Test: Will a 23% policy rate reach business borrowing costs before 2027?

The CBN cut its policy rate by 350bp to 23% in September 2026, yet in the first month business lending rates rose. This paper shows why the cut is slow to reach borrowers, puts odds on when relief arrives, and tells finance teams how to plan 2027 borrowing.

By STATART Team

21 pages · CBN, DMO, NBS and IMF data · transmission analysis with scenarios and odds · Published 26 October 2026
Get the paper
What the paper covers
  • Why a record rate cut has not lowered loan rates yet
  • The 45% cash reserve requirement and the cost of a lendable naira
  • Scenarios and odds for lending rates through 2027
  • Borrowing decisions for CFOs, founders and lenders

Written for

CFOs, treasurers, founders, lenders, investors and policy teams

Cite this paper

STATART Team, STATART Insights and Analytics (2026). The Rate-Cut Test: Will a 23% policy rate reach business borrowing costs before 2027?. Lagos: STATART.
Available nowResearch quality

Why Most Survey Data in Nigeria Cannot Be Trusted, and How to Fix It

Nigeria has gone 20 years without a census, its official benchmarks were rebuilt in 2023 to 2025, and phone answers differ from face-to-face answers by 17% to 18% at the median. This paper shows how those errors stack inside a typical survey and gives buyers a 7-check playbook and audit templates to grade any dataset before it reaches the board.

By STATART Team

23 pages · NPC, NBS, World Bank, DHS data · desk review with open method and 4 audit templates · Published 26 October 2026
Get the paper
What the paper covers
  • Why a 2006 census and 10% gaps between official population bases distort survey weights
  • How CPI, GDP and labour rebasing broke the benchmarks surveys are checked against
  • What phone surveys and fieldwork shortcuts do to answers, and what the evidence cannot tell us
  • A 7-check commissioning playbook with sample audit and field QA templates

Written for

Research buyers, brand insight teams, banks and investors, NGOs and development partners, government planners

Cite this paper

STATART Team, STATART Insights and Analytics (2026). Why Most Survey Data in Nigeria Cannot Be Trusted, and How to Fix It. Lagos: STATART.
Available nowPricing and FX

Pricing in Chaos: How Nigerian Businesses Are Rebuilding Their Pricing Models

The naira firmed about 5% in 2026, yet Nigerian firms kept raising prices. This paper shows why oil, not the dollar, now drives costs, sets out the 5 pricing models firms are using, and gives a cost-stack pricing rule with odds and scenarios for 2027.

By STATART Team

18 pages · CBN, NBS, PMI, IMF, oil and company data · pricing rule with worked example, scenarios and odds · Published 27 October 2026
Get the paper
What the paper covers
  • Why prices kept rising after the naira firmed
  • How oil, energy and margin rebuilding drive 2026 prices
  • 5 pricing models Nigerian firms use, sector by sector
  • A cost-stack pricing rule for 2027, with scenarios and odds

Written for

Treasurers, finance directors, founders, importers, brand owners and investors

Cite this paper

STATART Team, STATART Insights and Analytics (2026). Pricing in Chaos: How Nigerian Businesses Are Rebuilding Their Pricing Models. Lagos: STATART.
Available nowConsumers

The New Nigerian Consumer: Why Price No Longer Predicts Purchase Decisions

Staple prices fell by up to 45% in a year and inflation eased, yet Nigerian consumer confidence fell to -18.7. This paper shows why the shelf price no longer explains what households buy, and how cash on hand, the cost of the trip and trust now decide pack, channel and brand.

By STATART Team

17 pages · NBS, CBN, EFInA, World Bank, shopper panel and company data · desk review with scenarios and odds · Published 26 October 2026
Get the paper
What the paper covers
  • Why falling prices have not brought back the Nigerian shopper
  • How cash on hand, trip cost and trust now decide pack, channel and brand
  • Category and company evidence from 2025 to 2026 results
  • What brands, retailers and investors should change for 2027

Written for

FMCG brand and commercial teams, retailers, and investors in consumer goods

Cite this paper

STATART Team, STATART Insights and Analytics (2026). The New Nigerian Consumer: Why Price No Longer Predicts Purchase Decisions. Lagos: STATART.
The Standard

What makes a STATART white paper

A white paper is not a long advert. Each one has to pass four tests before it publishes.

01

One question, stated up front

The paper names the question on page one and answers it by the end. No tour of everything we know.

02

Evidence you can check

Every figure carries its publisher, reference period, retrieval date and currency basis, so a reader can trace it.

03

Method in the open

Samples, field checks and models are described plainly, including what the data cannot tell you.

04

A decision at the end

The last section says what a brand, investor or policymaker should do differently, and what would change our view.

Choose the Right Read

How white papers differ from our other publications

PublicationThe question it answersHow oftenBest for
White paperWhy is this happening, and what should we do about it?QuarterlyStrategy, positioning and board discussion
Market OutlookWhere are prices, the naira and demand heading next?Monthly to twice yearlyBudgets, pricing and forecasts
Market and industry reportsHow big is this market, who is in it, and how is it changing?Updated when you orderMarket entry, investment and lending decisions
Blog and analysisWhat does this week's number mean?Daily to weeklyStaying current

Have a question worth a white paper?

Brands, development partners and universities co-author papers with us, or commission one on a question of their own.

Co-author with usPropose a topic